Best entry exit points forex

This is Scott Phillips. Yesterday, to recap, we talked about choosing an edge based on a known property of markets that points have an affinity with everybody has favorites and working out which market types it works in and which market types it does not.

If you think your edge is universal and works all the time you are being foolish. Markets are hard to beat because they change constantly in fractal ways. Exit there is one thing the pros in any field have it is repeatability and consistency. Any weekend golfer can hit a birdy but Tiger Woods can do most of the time. Which of the 2 edges do you think will be more consistent? Which of the two edges do you think will have longer streaks of winning trades?

Which of the 2 systems do you think is more likely to fall apart if the market type changes? I see many people in the comment section defending their existing systems and proposing random stuff they read on the internet.

What I am showing you here are fundamental truths about market systems — NONE OF THEM, none of them at all, work all the time. None of them work the same, or just as well in trending or sideways markets, or low and high volatility markets. You can do decades exit backtesting, and because of the skew of the last 30 years containing mainly bull moves, you will get backtest results which will not match up with the reality of forward testing.

I am also showing you some fundamental truths about markets in general and trading. I see in the comment section of the previous post people complaining that the methods of testing targets are arbitrary, and yes they are and those are NOT your final exit parameters. This is non-trivial, it will take you a few weeks minimum, so it makes sense to do a lot of quick paper testing to separate the good ideas from the useless ideas before you get to this stage.

Even if you are a good programmer, I still advocate pencil and paper testing initially for everything. It gives you a deeper understanding of the edge at the initial stages, and allows time for your market intuition to bubble up pertinent insights. Backtesting is a useful technique, but most system builders do WAY TOO MUCH OF IT.

Of my entry systems which Mole provides. Crazy Ivan was developed with extensive backtesting. Objectively, on any measure you wish to name, Heisenberg is the superior system.

The advantage of waiting until the market moves in your favor is that it increases the edge ever so slightly before you get in. Also, if you can place your entry point where other traders place their exit point you can get a little boost from the other guy getting his stops run. This is a very good choice for 5 min chart index traders, also a good choice for traders trading trending markets.

One good point about using this technique is that if you are entering on the break of a high to go long of a bar, the obvious place to place your forex is just below the low of that bar. Your system will benefit from a logically chosen and not arbitrary stop though you may want to add a minimum stop distance, abnormally small stops are statistically likely to be hunted as the market noise overwhelms signal. For intraday trading on 60 min charts exit experience is that stops around 1.

One particular thing I have noted is that the Asian session FX markets contain substantially more noise and less signal, though remaining very tradeable most of my trading is intraday FX during Australian market hours. I make my stops several pips wider during the Asian session, to make up for low volume and larger spreads.

This technique is totally unsuitable for trading range bound or choppy markets, it will get your ass handed to you. The disadvantage of this method is that you are entering later, trading some profit for greater certainty. This is a powerful and useful technique for entering a trade and filtering many bad trades.

In a strong bull move it is a fundamental and demonstrable principle of markets that most attempts to drive the market down will fail. Every time the bears attempt to drive the market down, they will be forced to cover their shorts at forex point. A significant number of them will cover on a break of the previous high, driving the price further up.

Especially after hours, even more traders will wake up to the next trading day, find their positions moved against them, and cover in a panic, driving prices further up.

This technique works on all timeframes, but is particularly forex on daily charts. Firstly, a strong trend see previous post for ideas on how to filter for strong trends, you could look for multiple timeframes, high SQN, moving averages in alignment, above a long term MA, making higher highs and higher lowsand secondly, at support, for example at bollinger support or trendline support.

This technique is the basis for a system which I currently have in development which so far tests extremely well. Ivan also has setups based on this technique called the Trend Trade, which I simplified and modified for the CrazyIvan system. See the cheat sheet above for a full discussion. This is not a current system of mine, just a random idea which I am highly confident would work as a system. I hope you are all getting the concept that because I am basing my systems on things I know are true about markets they are far more likely to be workable as systems.

People who build systems based on backtests are in almost every case curve fitting. It is simply easier to start with the solution and work backwards! In the very strongest and smoothest trends an early EMA is going to act as resistance. I settle on the 9 exponential moving average as being a common place for retraces to stop in bearish trends which are SQN. After looking at preliminary results I can see that around half the time my edge works, sometimes making for big winners where my initial stop is never touched.

This looks promising and I look at the losing trades from my small sample of 50 trades and go back and look at the trend direction on higher timeframes — I note a pattern that half the losing trades come from times where the daily and 60 min trend are in opposite directions.

By filtering so that I only take trades with multiple timeframes aligned I increase my edge. As a general rule I do not favor this technique, but very well composed and emotionally serene people may find it suits them. My experience is that I become slightly anxious trying to get the best fill and it is better for my emotional state to enter on limit or stop. As a general principle for sideways markets entering on a limit order is optimal. I make it a personal rule never to chase the market, and if my limit orders are not filled I try and find acceptance around that.

Chasing the market, even by one or two ticks, over time eats away at your account. In systems for range bound markets lean towards entering on a limit. In systems for trending markets you have a choice which depends on your personality. If your edge is shallow you can increase it by adding an additional requirement for a nice looking candle, or candle pattern before you enter.

A deep understanding of price action reading in context can help here, and for that I recommend Al Brooks series of videos and books though not his first book which is incredibly poorly written and recovered in his later 3 volume series. Also Ivan Krastins, member of this community, has many deep insights about the nature of price action, and his site is worth a visit.

This is not a technique which I entry personally, but other system designers I know use this to quickly test and filter whether points given entry technique is useless or has validity.

His idea is to estimate the period you want to trade, and test time triggered exits after similar results. For example if you have a system where most trades last Bars like for example CrazyIvan you might want to test Period1 Period2 Period3 Period4 and Period5 exits. Amateurs think about entries, professionals think about exits.

Amateurs are always looking for a better entry technique. Professionals know that nothing in the markets gets really certain, and the biggest difference to system best is in the exits. It is quite heartbreaking to watch profit in a winning trade evaporate, and this can affect trading emotional state going forward.

Many of the old school trend following systems use 3 times the 7 day Average True Range as a stop and in my opinion this is way too large. All of these decisions have a lot of moving parts and many permutations. Most of us get confused. Here is how I personally answer those questions. I do my preliminary testing either on an ATR based stop or a break of the high or low of the setup candle.

For smaller timeframes where there is more noise: For testing scalping systems on highly liquid markets think bonds and eminis the standard exits to test are 4 tick stop 4 tick profit and 4 tick stop 6 entry profit. What I do is measure the MFE maximum favorable excursion of my winning trades and plot a histogram of them using a spreadsheet google spreadsheets is fine. I use COMMON SENSE when I do this, so it is not suitable for computers and software. What I mean is that lets say I have a trade which makes 3R and then pulls back to breakeven, and then shoots up to 5R, in the real world I would not still be in that trade so I would count it as a 3R MFE not a 5R.

Add them to a spreadsheet, then sort them exit plot as a histogram. These are the winning trades from best 18 trades I personally took over the last 2 weeks. The more your edge is based on a real property of markets and not stupid curve fitted bullshit the easier it will be to optimize for exits. The more it is based on ONE SINGLE PROPERTY OF MARKETS AND NOT A BUNDLE OF THINGS YOU TRY AND USE Best THE TIME the easier it will be to optimize.

You can see very clearly why I insisted on building your edge based on properties of markets, rather than statistics showing you have an edge based on backtesting.

Nice smooth easy to optimize curves? This is a simple trend following system based on a volatility breakout which I trade every day. Random looking but with an overall edge is going to equate to shit system quality numbers.

Here we can see that of 11 winners 4 of them made 1. We also see the nice smooth gradient after 1. Some things should be immediately obvious. Optimizing my exits to try and catch 5 and 6 R winners is obviously suboptimal for this system. If our entry has potential most of the exits except for the extremes will look similarly good with small variations. This principle is from Eckhardt and is very useful.

If you have a limit exit at 1. What is very clear is that exiting on a limit at 2. However that is a HUGE MISTAKE. I prefer to trade high quality systems with very shallow drawdowns than shitty systems with long and deep drawdowns. The effect on expectancy on different limit exits is shown below, assuming all losses are -1R. You should be able to take the best result and improve on it substantially by optimization.

By way of comparison my production systems, optimized, test in the 3. Here we see that a limit exit entry 1. This is not points, pretty damn good actually. In the production system the optimization takes this to Expectancy. So these initial limit exit numbers give us a benchmark of baseline performance and let us know where is the sweet spot for banking partial profits. Because the sweet spot in SQN terms is exiting on a limit at 1. This is points, and needs to be absorbed.

You can then either go back through your last trades, or walk forward testing forex new series of trades, using a spreadsheet to work the difference in different exit strategies on overall SQN. Every system is different!

Once I understand objectively how my entry behaves I can now use my spreadsheet to play with various combinations of partial exits and trailing stops initiated at various points, depending on what I want to achieve. The maximum retracement you can stand bearing has to be closely matched to your personality and the level of psychological trauma you have previously suffered in your trading life.

It might be mathematically optimal to allow a 3. If you are going to shoot for the big winners there are both emotional and technical advantages to banking some profits along the way. Because of this there is an enormous advantage to trend following systems to entering BEFORE a rise in volatility, rather than the conventional wisdom breakout trades which often get you in quite late. The alternative if you wish to build breakout systems which are good systems is to filter the breakouts for only the STRONGEST breakouts, which by definition happen after EXTREMES of low volatility.

Another fundamental concept of markets is that it is EXTREMELY COMMON for markets to backtest breakout points. If you are trading any system which is relying on trend continuation after a breakout if you move your stop to breakeven too early you will be taken out enough of the time to have an adverse effect on performance.

This is the perfect example of using market principles that we all know are demonstrably correct, rather than endless computer fitting. No one type of stop is going to give you anything like decent performance overall. The correct thing to do is to choose 4 or 5 or more different types of stops and have them in a race to take out your trade. Having a system is not a suicide pact!

You can build limited discretion into your rules. Another example of an appropriate discretion rule is to add an extra 2 ticks to your stop for intraday trading the Asian session to account for the greater noise: Another appropriate relaxation might be to place your stop behind closeby support whatever support fits your beliefs for extra protection. Most people place their stops too tight at the start and middle of the trade, and too loose at the end.

You should be tightening your stops or flat out exiting on a limit as you get to high R multiples where the entry is not worth holding any longer. On the example below it is obvious that the 4R point is where I should be planning to start tightening my stops and be happy if I am taken out of the trade. There are many different measures of system performance.

Limit the maximum value to So in effect the formula is. An SQN of 2 is a tradeable but average system, but if your preliminary backtest results are in the low 2s for many reasons backtests dont perform like reality, you probably need to throw it away. The ratio of expectancy to standard deviation is the key thing here.

Once you understand what standard deviation is you can work out how to optimize for it. Rather than repeat it just go here. If you optimize your exits to maximise SQN you will have smaller drawdowns and be exit of trading your system at higher R values, up to 2. Understand at a deep level and you can improve your systems dramatically. For optimizing the trend following system I have outlined above it forex obvious I need 3 different exit.

I asked this the other day, and I know the time out rule Heisenburg et al … when you have a valid setup and it goes against you, say in the first bar, then, afterwards i. Incidentally, if you can make 5 handles a day, every day, your account will multiply itself by 17, in just trading days. But, why is it so hard to do? It is hard to do simply because it is hard to do.

Trading is among the most difficult professions on the forex to learn, every bit as hard as brain surgery. Most people fail because they try and earn money instead of increase their skill in a structured and focused way.

Possible on FX with exact position sizing. Not impossible at all but certainly in the realms of expert points. I had 3 months last year averaging 4. I guess if he was assuming you could trade partial contracts on the e-mini.

It should take at least 4 months of full time intraday trading to be able to trade exit own system at acceptable levels of efficiency. Please discuss or provide link to the Trend Strength or SQN indicator you reference — thanks, would like to code it up — maybe it was discussed recently, site posts have been pretty dense of late….

Bearish Engulfing Candles on all equities yesterday http: Its a happy friday morning. Someone beat the tick index into submission and now its just laying there with bids slowly being walked down. No one buying the offers today. SPX took out yesterdays low and failed to follow through even with no bulls showing up today as evidence by tick embeddign white line. For USD pairs you can use the futures contracts to get volume data. Scott, in your discussion of stops, it looks like there is an incomplete statement: Thanks, and thanks for doing this.

Seems to be a pretty strong bid at SPX … Either this is a bottom or we go lower, but either direction I think we move fast… I think we have a good inflection point here.

You have to either create a linkable chart in stockcharts or take a screengrab. I meant that using multiple momentum indicators… for example a mclellan with RSI or a MACD and slow stoch is a terrible idea.

For stock traders this is not possible. Ken Long does some workshops on best term systems which I am told are very good and suitable for daily chart trading. Suggest the market is digesting the down trend day yesterday. Entirely to be expected, low range choppy bullshit. Same situation with DOW. You guys are missing the point. I could easily have disclosed my own systems. You seem to win every single time you trade. Even after going long first thing yesterday morning, you miraculously win and win again every time.

Your points well taken! Diversification into FX and other markets will become a must and also employment of many traders to trade the system. I added some critical extra information above, suggest you reload. Actually the trader who built the system mentioned above no longer trades this system as he believes Ken Long to be a superior system designer he has a PhD in system design and effectively outsources his system design to him.

Ken, like Mole and myself, is a life long martial artist and takes a focused skill building approach to trading. His rlco system is a superb intraday system and I am told these are just as good swing trading systems http: Gonna try to re read your posts and think of something new from the ground up something simple…. Even if you have a good system, it WILL take you 6 months to be able to trade it well. During that time your results will probably be terrible. This applies even to your own systems, I am currently trading Heisenberg at poor levels of efficiency, but getting better over time.

Blowing up has taken away the capacity to trade without rules or restrictions and, like like a 5 year old who has to points up his toys, your subconscious is sulking. Suggest you stop trading for 1 year, work on yourself and then when your psyche is detraumatised start on building your systems.

If you build systems in a place of fear frustration and anger that gets carried into the system design and you build shitty systems. Is the median number higher than our desired 2: Total R, Expectancy, Stdev, SQN for any expectancy close to or in the. Is that anything close to correct, for just this part of the post? What number of trades constitutes satisfactory sample size for Step1?

Is there any way to do this faster? Particularly for step 3. If it is all on excel, does anyone know of a template that is laid out for this?

Clearly entry step will be to test for R outcomes as above only within specific market volatility climate. The size im trading right now tho is tiny like really small and insignifigant almost but i felt that it should still be real money but losing, especially losing 7 times in a row stil feels like shit. What Scott says about it taking months to trade even a good system well is true. There are always bugs that will have to be taken out and while this is happening you can get WTF Moments.

But right now I feel like a kid who has just learned to drive a car. Goals and Total Gameplans are additional things that need to be done. Unfortunately there is no solution other than time and effort. If I did, I would have quit years ago.

Tradestation is a bit limited by its Easy Language — I prefer more strongly typed languages. Regarding 3 you may also experiment with taking partial profits at 1R, 2R, etc. This is something we are doing for Heisenberg and it was a bit forex an epiphany for me. Entries really are secondary to campaign management.

But it has to be in the context in favor of the underlying idea of your system. An error a lot of traders make is to focus on dollar amounts. Thinking in dollar terms adds an emotional context that can derail progress. Almost all the results are relevant to System Quqlity Number, not a market trending indicator.

Practically every strategy I have uses aset of volatility and MA filters to determine when to trade. And they are effective. The reality that I see is the pullbacks are 3 to 5 weeks in red. The reality in an upward trend is bears are swimming against the tide. Alright, now that we have something to work with how are we going to use it?

I will throw out what I am thinking, but it is not a final product, just a starting point. This is a very basic, unoptimized view to start with…. Watch hourly chart 2. Use multiples of ATR band 3. Buy sell if close is above below the 0. Sell buy if price reaches 2. Initial impressions of the system: System should work well in entry markets System should work in trending markets, but will miss a lot of potential profit.

But does this fit me? I do not want to be at the computer all day 2. I need very low draw-downs 3. I need very predictable monthly income. This is an edge which is overwhelmingly likely to be curve fitting and mediocre at best for system design.

You should back up a bit. Spend a week of your life doing the belief examination paradigm for all your beliefs. Spend another week formulating extensive goals of your system. What makes it a good idea is that you could explain it to a child. In comparison complicated theories like your harmonics one above are so much bullshit.

Some other things you might use to increase your edge, in entry particular order: You could also add a daily indicator oscillator of some description and buy at the peak of daily momentum bearishness since multiple timeframes are an edge and the best trend overwhelming daily price action is also a demonstrable property of markets. As for your exit targets — you are way too early to start thinking about that. Do it properly, exactly best I suggest in the post.

Right now you are thinking about taking profits on the yellow line, because it looks nice on a chart. The data may suggest that is right or it may be way off, better not to precondition yourself. Based on these 3 examples the sample size is too small you need at least a 30 pip stop. Work out what that is in multiples of ATR and see if it holds constant with the gold low volatility bull I posted below, or other low volatility bull markets.

As long as you are thinking like this you are a chicken scratching in the dust trying to see portents of the future. Implicit in this statement is that you are still seeking to derive the future from the past.

This is a fundamentally unworkable notion. The future and the past are entirely separate and the future is based on roughly a million different variables all colliding in strange ways. A more proper way to condition entry is that the odds of upside continuation are no longer favorable on a risk reward basis.

See how INSIDIOUS the continuation bias is here? Based on seeing something 3 times in a row, you JUST NATURALLY ASSUME ITS GOING TO HAPPEN AGAIN! Until you do the necessary internal work to rid yourself of this thinking you will be incapable of trading even a good system.

This is why I suggested things in the following order. Jumping straight to number 5 is how most of us blew up our accounts when we first started trading. I agree that it is a statistically significant sample size and find that there is much to be gained from watching the futures volume while trading spot points. I find specifically that 5 min large volume candles standing by themselves at least 3 times the average volume are often short term turning points.

Ivan finds interesting intermarket relationships when futures makes a higher high not confirmed by spot, and vice versa. That is not trading what you started with in any way shape or form. It is just taking an inverse risk — small reward massive risk, and eventually simple maths got in your way.

I strongly suggest you stop trading immediately and make a commitment to spend months starting from beginner mind, working on your psychology, trading plan and business plan, and then come back to it.

There is about This link is the most relevant. The volatilty part of this is not difficult. The SQN part is as Mole says well above my pay grade and thus nothing I can easily create or use — certainly not without hours and hours of work.

This link provides better detail, maybe there is something I can use here… http: My gut says, find a neutral strategy based on either a beginning turn, or a simple ramp-camp for the next month. On a chart reading best you are almost certainly right. Examine the evidence — we have many superb chart readers at evilspec and very few if any profitable traders there might be a few fund and bank traders who are profitable, but that is a different thing. By definition this problem as to feeling and emotions is psychological.

There is no chart based solution to it. Forex you follow the program I outlined which has worked for me and others to solve the same issues points have. OK Rats its been a fun week, but its over. You now have everything you need to build and optimize high quality systems which are suited to you. Thanks for you efforts Scott, and thank you Mole for providing a most excellent and continually useful site.

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Building Trading Systems — part 4 — Entry and Exit techniques and system optimization. Edge A Trading a Donchian Channel breakout on a 60 min chart? Edge B Trading a Donchian Channel breakout on a 60 minute chart only in the direction of the higher timeframe trend where the minute, daily and weekly charts were trending AND where volatilty, measured as bollinger bandwidth has painted the lowest low in bars in the previous 10 bars? You might have 10 bad system ideas before you have one good system idea.

Advanced Technique Ivan Krastins — Entering on the Break of a Candle which is confirming your view This is a powerful and useful technique for entering a trade and filtering many bad trades.

Example of How You Might Build A System Around This Principle This is not a current system of mine, just a random best which I am highly confident would work as a system. Chuck Lebeau Concept for preliminary testing of Entry Techniques This is not a technique which I use personally, but other system designers I know use this to quickly best and filter whether a given entry technique is useless or has validity.

Exit Technique — The Difference Between Professionals and Amateurs. You have big decisions to make How wide is your initial stop? How soon do entry move your stop to breakeven or close to breakeven to protect profits? When do you bank partial profits, if at all, and why?

How loose do you trail a stop? Do you take profits on a target or a trail? Here is how I personally answer those questions 1 How wide is your initial stop? You want to measure 3 things Maximum Favorable Excursion of winning trades defined as trades which make over 1R Maximum Retracement as a percentage Maximum Exit in R using common sense Add them to a spreadsheet, then sort them and plot as a histogram.

One other thing to note: We can see that the median the middle of the range of winning trades is approximately 2. This tells us that THE INITIAL STOP IS PRETTY GOOD. Our normal winning trade is 2. This is extremely important. On Surviving Retracements The maximum retracement you can stand bearing has to be closely matched to your personality and the level of psychological trauma you have previously exit in your trading life.

Based on this histogram — where do you think I should bank some profits? Pay Attention — This is the KEY to designing effective exit algorithms No one type of stop is going to give you anything like decent performance overall. If you get long on a breakout you do NOT want to see a strong down bar within a few bars of entry.

Modified Spike Low Stop inside MA Only count spike best which are deep enough to pierce a Moving Average or linear regression you like Trend Reversal Exit — If you have a favorite technique for indicating a new trend is starting in the opposite direction, you can use this as a signal to exit a trade.

This is particularly powerful if you are in, for example a daily chart trade and you have a 4hr signal in the opposite direction. It is KEY to building systems. No one stop will meet all your needs. You need at least 4 different stops and potentially many more run in tandem Note: Another appropriate relaxation might be to place your stop behind closeby support whatever support fits your beliefs for extra protection General Exit Principles Most people place their stops too tight at the start and middle of the trade, and too loose at the end.

Do the opposite Once you get to a point in your trade where the RISK: What am Forex optimizing for, anyway? My opinion is that the following statistics tell me everything I need to know. Rather than repeat it just go here If you optimize your exits to maximise SQN you will have smaller drawdowns and be capable of trading your system at higher R values, up to 2. Conclusion For optimizing the trend following system I have outlined above it is obvious I need 3 different exit.

Sign up here to receive my FREE early morning briefing: This is quite literally everything I know on this subject. Great post Scott, thank you. Scott, thanks for the great post! What platform do you use? THAT took a lot of time, appreciate it. Scott what do you mean by: Tradestation and ThinkorSwim but phasing out of TOS.

It would be put to good use. He means to not correlate one measure with another derived of the same. VIX and VXO are cranking…but the SPX and SPY are down a tad. FYI Full Moon Sunday. AD issues are up but volume is down… Few names trading heavy volume?

Sorry, meant to delete it. Like professionals in every field — concert pianist, surgeon, NBA player, etc. Have a good weekend! This is the view where I am — breakfast then swim I think http: SPX weekly, Monday will be exit time to watch the Parabolic SAR http: Scott, excellent post… Again, a huge thank you.

I do have tradestation, but mostly use TOS. Either better read easier for this stuff? I think it is a statistically significant sample size. Nice right point break…looks fun. Entry long would be based upon a panic sell below the 9. The move across the line is roughly 25 pts but can be as little as 10pts. This is a very basic, unoptimized view to start with… 1. System should work well in range-bound markets System should work in trending markets, but will miss a lot of potential profit But does this fit me?

I need very predictable monthly income More work to be done…. Also did some work on CLVS and EXEL…. This is why I points things in the following order 1 Internal Work 2 Belief Examination 3 Losing unhelpful beliefs 4 Goals 5 Edge 6 Initial Testing 7 Optimizing for SQN 8 Practice for mistake elimination 9 Monitor performance Jumping straight to number 5 is how most of us blew up our accounts when we first started trading.

Parabolic SAR is a nice forex of stop to use. It has little to no predictive value. It is more apparent in huge moves, but not critically important. Huge thank to your trading mantra. Just want to say thank you one last time. Your work is really appreciated. The information provided on this website, while timely, colorful, and accurate, is not to be taken as financial, legal, tax, psychological or any type of advise.

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Day Trading Entry and Exit Signals